After the Russian occupation of Crimea and the deployment of troops on the territory of Donbass, part of the Belarusian opposition decided to give up trying to get rid of Lukashenko. The fear that Belarus might lose its independence became more important than the desire for freedom. At that time, many Belarusians began to ask what these Ukrainians had achieved – the loss of territories, the hybrid war with Putin, the economic ruin, and all for the sake of some abstract rights. And only now we are finally coming to the truth that the Lukashenko regime is not a protector of peace. It is rather the opposite: the dictatorship believes that there is some strong leader who knows better what is good for the people. And such a high ego is extremely dangerous for everyone.

Anarchists have never welcomed wars because they distract the population from the real problems that surround us on a constant basis. Instead of striving for freedom, the populace begins to discuss the successes of advancement on the front lines. The place of international solidarity is taken by nationalism, which has turned brothers, sisters and comrades into mortal enemies. There is nothing progressive about war. War is the triumph of a misanthropic ideology of power. Today, as always, war is the business of the rulers, except that ordinary people die in it. In a patriotic trance, or simply for the money.

And now we find ourselves on the brink of another possible war. A war that Putin’s vassal, Lukashenko, will drag the Belarusian society into. And Belarusian soldiers will fly to return Ukraine into the so-called Slavic brotherhood. By Slavic brotherhood, the dictator most likely means the Russian empire, which, for many years now, under Putin’s leadership, has been trying to increase its power not only in Europe but also in Africa and the Middle East. The crackdown on the 2020 protests has dragged Belarus deeper into Russia. It is still unclear what price Lukashenko will have to pay for the Kremlin’s financial and political support.

Will there be a war?

We see no point in trying to analyze the behavior of inadequate dictators. Back in 2020, at the height of the protests, many experts said that Putin would never introduce CSTO troops into Belarus to suppress the protests. In 2022 troops were sent to Kazakhstan to stabilize the local regime loyal to Moscow. It is not clear what will happen next. The economic and political crisis caused by the coronavirus forces political elites to take risky steps to retain power.

De facto, with all Russian troops and thuggish cops, ready to torture and kill any opponent of Lukashenko, Belarusian society has been held hostage by the dictatorship. We will not be able to influence in any way the actions of the regime if it decides to attack the neighboring country. As we’ve seen in the case of Kazakhstan, they will keep jailing not only for actions, but also for any words condemning the policy of the tyrant. And believe us for all the time of existence of the Republic of Belarus we repeatedly verified Lukashenko’s inadequacy. Only liberal analysts can doubt his willingness to create chaos.

What is an ordinary person to do in this case? If a war begins – to defect. Desert in masses, along with all their weapons and equipment. Cross the front line into Ukraine and join the resistance against Putin’s plague of illiberal democracy.

In turn, anarchists and anti-fascists are also preparing for resistance in Ukraine. Not to preserve Ukrainian statehood, but to defend the minimal freedoms that Ukrainian society has achieved by fighting in recent years. And if you hope, as we do, that there won’t be a war, don’t forget that you should always prepare for the worst…